WTI recap for 09.02.2016
The daily correction seems to have ended as price finally managed to breach $31.00 and the downtrend line. Price opened at 31.55, made a slight high at 32.02, dropped down towards as low as 29.14 and closed at 29.68. Volumes were high as the movement was initiated with a strong bear push, putting some pressure on the hopeful bulls for a "new bottom" and bears were supported by fundamentals and news from OPEC. Currently price is held at 29.57 as it enters the support zone between 27.64 and 29.57. We may see an attempt to go back towards 30 and 31 for a test on the level and the line, and if not supported strongly, price may stall and continue again with fresh force from bears again towards 29.57 and they will try to attack it with more determination.
For the short-term game, and understand that my thinking here is streched until June with the assumed meeting from OPEC to discuss oil production cuts after they see the effect from their strategy still taking its place against Shell business and Iranian Oil slowly being distributed and fundamentals or other speculative moves to give a breather for the price - we will see more choppy moves as the summer comes in and the assumed events from OPEC. Price may form a range between 27.68 and 35-37 price levels and form a technical figure for the set up when the final news arrive - production cut - prices go up, no cut - price will continue to fall down even more. Even below 27. In the last post I said Oil is 100% win on shorting it, well as events fold and even more uncertainty settles in surrounding OPEC moves and the overall data and the world slipping in-to another recession I am taking it back and would suggest caution. Oil is getting really sensitive now on even the slightest rumor. For example: Last week's statement from Russia that Turkey is planning a full-on assault on Syria. Though that wasn't confirmed it is known that Turkey have somewhat military presence on their border with Syria and firing one-or-two bombs every week. Now with the Arabs wanting to get in, things may mess up even more. As this is strong speculation for the politic side of things, as I mentioned Oil reacts now to everything. BRENT will follow the same fate as WTI of course. BRENT also breached the same daily configuration as WTI had. Support for BRENT may be found now at 29.10.
Buy the rumor sell the fact... I guess? Price tells this works. Short the highs and keep your eyes open.