the daily chartist

What's next for the upcoming week on the calendar

published 1 year ago

 We've ended the long week to enjoy some peace and relaxation over the weekends as it was quite filled with action and a small dose of fear for sure. Have you noticed that every correction that happens stars to gain more and more attention? It's like the needle closes with every inch near the balloon to pop it. Small negative catalysts like first signs of worsening economic sentiment over the world and... the fear... of a forthcoming monetary policy tend to plunge the markets with 5 to 6% and everyone is near the fat finger to dump everything. The media is to blame about that for sure and it adds a bit of spice to the events. So when the catalyst fades out everyone's just back to buying, back to normal, like nothing happened and we have DJIA at a new all-time high in a month. Nothing yet that important has happened for everyone to panic and that we can talk about new dark times. Keep it chill.

 So we are heading into a new week that's gonna be long for sure as entering mid-October the month has been more than filled with action and totally not boring. For the week between 15.10 and 19.10 we have the following news and events that we need to take into account for our forecasting and trading:

 Monday, Asian session starting with the rising sun and the economy of Japan. Revised Industrial production m/m shows us that the expectations are that the current conditions will remain the same, flat at 0.7%. On the US-premarket session, we have some Inflation data for the US. Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4%/0.3%, Retail Sales m/m 0.7%/0.1% and Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.4/19. Business Inventories are the last 0.5%/0.6%. For Canada e have BOC Business Outlook Survey.

 Tuesday brings us more stuff to watch. Sometime during the day, we will see the US Treasury Currency. Starting early, before the EU session we have German Import Prices m/m at 0.1%/-0.2%. Pound follows with Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.6%/2.6%, Unemployment Rate 4%/4%. Moving further into the EU session we have Trade Balance 15B/12.8B. ZEW Economics Sentiment -9.2/-7.2. German ZEW Economics Sentiment -12.3/-10.6. US pre-market we have MPC Member Cunliffe speaking and for the US we have Industrial Production m/ 0.2%/0.4%. JOLTS Job Openings 6.90M/6.94M and NAHB Housing Market Index 68/67. Ending the day we have FOMC Member Daly speaking. 

 Mid-week on Wednesday we have heavy GBP inflation data, starting with CPI y/y 2.6%/2.7%, PPI Input m/m 0.9%/0.5%, Core CPI y/y 2%/2.1%. For the EU we have Fina CPI y/y 2.1%/2.1% and Final Core CPI y/y 0.9%/0.9%. From Canada, we have Manufacturing Sales m/m with no forecast for now, but previously it was 0.9%. Following that we have US Building Permits 1.28M/1.25M and Housing Starts 1.21M/1.28M. Crude Oil Inventories follows with the previous value which was a cushion of 6M barrels. Ending the day we have e chain of speakers pilled up, starting with FOMC Member Brainard speaking, German Buba President Weidmann speaking, MPC Member Broadbent speaking and FOMC Meeting minutes. 

 Thursday we are starting with Japan's Trade Balance -0.34T/-0.19T and BOJ Gov Kuroda speaking. German WPI m/m comes after 0.4%/0.3% and GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3%/0.3%. During the whole day, we are having the EU Economic Summit. CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change follows with no forecast, but previously it was 13.6K. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index follows 21/22.9 and Unemployment Claims 210K/214K previously. 

 Lastly, but not lacking significance we have Friday. BOJ Kuroda speaking again in early Asia trading, heading into the EU trading we have EU Current Account 21.4B/21.3B. US pre-market we have a series of Canadian inflation data, starting with CPI m/m which previously was -0.1%, Core Retails Sales m/m 0.9%, Common CPI y/y 2%, Median CPI 2.1%, Retail Sales m/m 0.3%, Trimmed CPI y/y 2.2% and Core CPI m/m 0.1%. All previous values, they still do not have any forecasted values. Existing Home Sales for the US comes after at a forecast of 5.31M, previously 5.34M. Ending the day and the week we have BOE Carney speaking and FOMC Member Bostic on the microphones also.