Weekly Market Recap (7.09-13.09.2015)
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This is my first article.
Weekly market recap for the period 7.09 - 11.09.2015.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD related
The week started with economic data from Germany EU Zone and Switzerland.
07.09.2015. Data was out for the German Industrial Production index on monthly basis, showing a drop to 0.7% from the estimated 1.2% for the month of September. The previous value (as revised) was at -0.9%. Shortly the GIP index shows change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. It is a leading indicator of economic health as for production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings.
On the Swiss side, they started the week with data bout their Foreign Currency Reserves witch came at 540 B (billion) from 531 B as previous value. As the data shows the reserves are up in August. This indicator provides insight into the SNB's (Swiss National Bank) currency market operations, such as how actively they are defending the franc's exchange rate against the euro.
Sentix Investor Confidence was last for the economic data scheduled for 7.09.2015. Expectations collapsed as the data came up at 13.6 points, the forecast was 16.2 and for August the index was at 18.4 points. It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity. US and Canada had their Bank Holidays.
08.09.2015 was a busy day for Europe starting with Retail Sales BRC on year basis (British Retail Consortium) for the UK, which measures change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level. It came at -1.0%, with previous for August 2015 at 1.2%. Switzerland again came up with its Unemployment Rate staying steady and unchanged at 3.3.% as forecast and previous at 3.3.%. German Trade Balance came up positive at 22.8 B as 21.8 B was a forecast and was higher than the revsied 22.1 B. French Gov Budget Balance was changed from the previous -58.5 B value to -79.8 B, also the French had their Trade Balance up which was at -3.3 B as -3.2 B forecast, the previous value was revised to -2.8 B. Revised GDP on quarterly basis (q/q) came up positive to 0.4% from previous 0.3% which was the forecast as swell. We also had a 30-year Bond Auction for the UK, and for the US we had NFIB Small Business Index which came up a bit low at 95.9 from 95.4, forecast was 96.0 points, Labor Market Conditions Index (monthly) m/m which came up positive at 2.1 from 1.8 points (revised from August) and Consumer Credit m/m which was positive from the forecast value (18.4 B), climbing to 19.1 B, but revised August value was 27.0 B.
09.09.2015 for the EU Zone started with Manufacturing Production m/m which came up negative at -0.8% from 0.2%, a negative Trade Balance to -11.1 B from -8.5 B and Industrial Production m/m was negative also coming at -0.4% from the forecast at 0.1%. The final major events were from the US with their JOLTS Job Opening coming at 5.75 M from 5.30 as forecast and 5.32 M as previous.
10.09.2015. The French had their major data up first with French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q coming unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% forecast and previous value. French Industrial Production m/m came up negative to -0.8% from a forecast at 0.3% and previous 0.0% value. The Brits had their Halifax HPI m/m positive at 2.7% from forecast 0.5% and revised previous from August value from -0.4%. GBP had its influence also from statement for the Official Bank Rate which was hold unchanged and the rate is staying at 0.50%. US had its Unemployment Claims coming positive at 275 k from forecast 279 k and revised August value from 281 k.
11.09.2015. German Final CPI m/m came unchanged staying at 0.0%, Italian Industrial Production m/m was positive at 1.1% from forecast at 0.9% and previous for August -1.0%. US PPI m/m was positive at 0.0% from forecast -0.1% and from previous, revised, 0.2% value, Core PPI too came in positive at 0.3% from forecast at 0.1% and previous value at 0.3%. Prelim Consumer Sentiment wrapped up the day coming negative to 85.7 points from forecast 91.4 and previous, revised, 91.9 points.
The euro opened the week candle on 1.11589 and for the full week bulls held to the euro with longs and pumped up the price to 1.13490, closing at 1.13414. Still the euro on weekly chart is in a triangle formation and currently price has touched the top resistance line and we may see a move down to 1.10296 before the push up to 1.17128 and further up to 1.124634, but not before correcting down to 1.13414.
Sterling finished the week at 1.54254, dropping from the week high at 1.54757. The weekly move started actually positive without initial drop around the 1.51672 (buy zone) level. At this rate if dollar continues to loose positions against the majors and UK shows positive news, we may see a new test at 1.57422, returning to 1.5476, but with the uncertainty around the FED rate hikes we may actually see a halt at that level and watch the Pound moving lower to 1.51697, a move below 1.51 could signal for a move low to as around 1.49670 and maybe finding a support at 1.49150.