the daily chartist

The Euro triangle dilemma

published 1 year ago

The Euro has been playing along inside the triangle for quite some time now with being very close to the bottom line on 19.07. The pair is moving back and forth as the sentiment shifts from the one direction to the other with the USD making strong gains and the euro making ones as well. These are my two main scenarios for the breakout of the triangle formation, which is similar to the one that was formed between February and March with a break in April this year, which has led to the crumbling of the Euro from 1.23 to 1.15. Ping - pong fundamentals with strong and weaker macro data from Europe and US are a catalyst as well as different bouncing rhetoric from Trump, Xi Ping, and Merkel regarding the Trade war which is getting deeper and deeper with new and much more effective tariffs and restrictions. In the end, if strong USD prevails in regards to technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment, the triangle will play out as the previous one, pushing the price down towards 1.15096 and 1.13092 with a test back towards 1.5096, falling again towards 1.11179. The second way this can go is if the dice rolls in favour of the Euro and the price breaks the triangle from the top side, breaching 1.17498 towards 1.8518. Testing again 1.17498 and if successful the trend will reverse towards 1.21579. Before both of the cases manifest, there will be pre-signals, leading to the future direction of the pair.