S&P500 Revenue earnings problem
Step by step, the world economy slides into recession and with that comes the question: what is the actual state of the US Corporate profits and it is really is "they are fine" as most people depict it. As the table from ISI shows, the US has a big revenue problem, which are dropping hard and indicate a revenue recession and every quarter in 2015 set to post a decline from the previous year, with even the overly optimistic consensus case of 4% increase in Q1 2016. revenues unable to regain sales last seen in Q3 2014, but S&P500 expected earnings in Q1 2016 of 119, a 6% increase from the previous year, will barely be back to the levels seen in Q3 2014.
And this with nearly 1% trillion in projected stock buybacks for all of 2015 steadily removing the S from the EPS calculation.
All that can be added to the above is that if the USD continues its steady ascent, despite FED not hiking, expect ongoing dollar strength and the resulting commodity weakness to depress both revenues and sales even further, until everyone is forced to admit that the S&P500 is already in both revenue and profit recession.