EUR/USD recap for 14.09.2015
Euro opened at 1.13311 and made a move to 1.13725 to the resistance line from the weekly chart figure. We had Industrial Productions coming in at 0.6% from a forecast of 0.3% and previous (revised) -0.3%. Although it is in a positive territory the pair actually made a move down, then turned back. In the end, on the small time frames as in 4H and 1H the pair resumes its downtrend move. This is my current view for the pair, but everything can change as on Thursday the FED will shed more light on their rate policy or they will firmly close the case with a hike that has been expected. As for the hike, there is a 23% probability that they will indeed do it. The hike is targeted for 0.50 base points from 0.25 and vise-versa the probability of staying at 0.25 is 76.86%. There was some speculation that FED may just implement another QE4. For now the dollar will be gaining ground versus all pairs. As for the euro the overall trend is up, but seeing that the price has reached a peak point, we can't disagree that it will go down in short-term and in the long-term to make its slowly but eventual progress to 1.17 and 1.18.