the daily chartist

Daily market recap for 06.06.2018

published 3 years ago

 Today I'll be covering only Crude Oil and the EUR/USD. These two for me were interesting to watch and made some losses and gains a long the way of trading for Yesterday. For Gold and Bitcoin I'll wait for today's events and market movements for something interesting to happen. 

Daily candle specifics
Open 65.45
High 65.90
Low 64.22
Close 64.92

 API report predicted for a large inventory of Oil and Gasoline supplies and Yesterday the EIA report confirmed that with a large supply build which hindered the prices lower. 
EIA data:

  • Crude +2.07MM, Exp. -2.1MM
  • Gasoline +4.603MM:
  • Distillate: +2.165MM
  • Cushing: -955K
  • Imports: 715K
  • Production: +31kb/d to 10.8MMb/d 

 Also the OPEC meeting is set to be in June 22 in Vienna. The ANZ has published a useful report looking ahead:

  1. Oil production losses in Venezuela, Angola and recent Iranian sanctions have tightened the market more than intended by OPEC.
  2. Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering raising output by 1mb/d. However, we expect an increase of 600kb/d. Such an increase could be absorbed by the market without altering the fundamentals.
  3. We see that depleted inventories and geopolitical risks are keeping prices well supported

 More, this is what ANZ is watching ahead:

  1. OPEC meeting 21-22 June: decision to either raise output or continue with production cut.
  2. US shale production: US output has been rising strongly, offsetting the bullish OPEC supply curbs.
  3. Demand growth indicator: global economic growth momentum can potentially affect oil demand growth, with a slowdown to 1mb/d in consumption a negative for prices.

On prices:

  1. OPEC's proposed production increase sets the scene for investors to liquidate the record speculative positions they had built up over the past few months

 This could weigh on prices in the short term. That said, the upcoming OPEC meeting on 22 June will be worth watching, with investors unlikely to hold any aggressive positions ahead of the event
 With the increase of concerns about rising supply outputs the price will continue to be pressured and I am still hanging to my bets that the price will fall down to level 38.22 Fibo to 63.60 as a near - term movement. And of course as downside pressure remains strong the price will fall to 60 and there it will be crucial for the price as a level to test it - short - term view. Long - term view - drop to 58. 
 Before the OPEC meeting we will see two more EIA reports for further indication of the supply levels. If nothing major occurs before that I think the price will stick within a range between 64.15 and 65.97 with sharp gains/losses depending on the EIA outcomes in between the range. After EIA clears out the price will start to crawl even more in a tighter range between 64.59 and 65.24. On the 22nd it will huge for Oil. 
 If the situation seems to be coming risky for you can wait out for 22nd and when the dust settles you can make your trades as everything has been processed, played out, all SL's are cleared ect. 

 EUR/USD had a very good run Yesterday as it started with a nice 40 pips movement in early EU session. Price is playing out a Bullish flag configuration. Positive comments from ECB officials regarding sooner than expected ending of ECB QE boosted the price and it has confirmed it desire to move away from the descending trend and to breach 1.18000. The price will try to breach 1.18000 at all cost and to close above it and if this happens it will try to reach the 200DEMA which is around 1.19000 - 1.19500. 

Daily candle specifics
Open 1.17125
High 1.17953
Low 1.17122
Close 1.17742

 Buying the dips now sounds like a good idea with a reasonable SL as nevertheless the price is slipping away from the negative bias it may turn back for a small correction, to test the Bull's motivation.