the daily chartist

USD/JPY climbs to new highs

published 1 year ago
USD/JPY Daily

 The recent rally in USD/JPY has been well backed by the strong US dollar and we have breached 113 and moved rapidly towards 114. Overall the price is in an uptrend and we had two attempts to move past the upper line above 114 on the 01.10 and Yesterday. Tuesday's daily candle ended with a Bearish engulfing one, signalling the end of the trend, which was too steep as well, quickly exhausting the Bulls. Move down to 113.161 is acceptable and we may see a test there on the line for possible breach and a new downtrend movement towards 112.146. Stochastic indicator is making a sell signal crossover as well and CCI starts to move below the overbought line. It is appropriate to short the pair at these levels, catching the correction down towards 113.161 with a stop loss at 114.110 and take profit at 113.161. That's a couple of pips you can squeeze out from the market at this point and you can wait out for further breach and confirmation that the move down will continue for new short entries. 

Ethereum starts to crack up

published 1 year ago
Ethereum Daily

 Finally, we are seeing the price of ETH succumbing to the pressure from Bears as it is breaking the line this time as the Bulls have failed to keep the price above 220 and met a strong resistance at 250 where selling resumed. Currently, my view goes back to the negative plan where the price breaches the wedge and moves lower towards 180 - 170 zone. Stoch and CCI are also moving in for a sell signal. As with Bitcoin the outflow of money there will keep the prices down and in a tight range for speculative purposes. We are going to see spikes here and there, but no clear signal for a new uptrend, or an acceleration for a downtrend across the crypto. As Bitcoin goes down, Ethereum and everything else follows because of the strong correlation in the crypto market. Selling your owned ETH here is a good idea then to buy more on a cheap level or if you are going to speculate on margin, shorting here will give you good profit as well for a take profit at 180 and stop loss at 250. 

Bitcoin still struggles to find a direction

published 1 year ago
Bitcoin Daily

 For quite some time the main crypto coin is having troubles finding a direction and it has been moving sideways between 6840 and 6200. Still, inside the downtrend and in the triangle that's been prolonged for some time now, the price has created a bearish wedge as well inside of the big formation. My view here is that the price will breach the wedge and move again towards the buy zone of 6200. Stoch and CCI are already turning South as well, providing a good sell signal. Reaching the rectangle zone will probably give another boost for the price, going up towards the upper line again. The price starts to squeeze more and more as the figure goes pointy and pointy with every week. For now, there isn't any catalyst whatsoever to back up a strong move up or down and to give a clearer direction for the price on Bitcoin. The idea for a Crypto ETF is moving slowly into the shadows with the idea to be forgotten and left under the rug by the US government. As the price keeps crawling in a tight range, liquidity drops as well and the small retail trader will lose interested in investing in crypto overall. Only the Whales remain as they will be only ones left with enough BTC or ETH to move the markets and to create some kind of action and volatility. Still, BTC has value. Some countries indexes don't have the value of 6000 to 7000 on their national markets. This needs to be appreciated as well and that BTC is actually expensive and if you don't trade it on margin you are better off buying some real stocks on the stock market. The ones that are holding the Crypto since 2009 - 2010 are still rich and they have enough value real cash wise if they want to cash out. The unacceptable thing was that everyone else entered too late and "died". So there aren't new whales being formed and the few market movers actually left - the original people who bought BTC in the beginning.

 So don't jump to rapid conclusions that we are going to see 20k, 30k or 100k by the end of the year - this was all hype to lure you to the trap that has sprung. If you want to trade crypto, by all means, do it, but buying and leaving won't help you. Just trade it near - term, speculative, follow your analysis and make some buck out of the instrument. Don't invest in cloud mining as well as it is a dying business as it was the physical mining. Owning real BTC for usage in real life and hoping for millions in the boundaries of 3 months is dead an idea as well. 

 There are enough markets as well to exploit for profits from which you can learn more and to gain further experience. Don't restrict yourself only to Crypto. It is not easy to trade it, just buying 5 BTC at 100 and then hitting the jackpot at 20k and retiring. Trading Crypto is like trading any other instrument or derivative out there. 

 Good luck to everyone who still has hopes to become a millionaire by Christmass this year. 

Troubles for Gold

published 1 year ago
Gold Daily

 Gold took a short way South as the price was pushed down after FED events on Wednesday, breaching 1190 and going inside the demand zone, which failed to endure and gave further motivation for the Bears to move in and longs to be covered from the buyers. Movement pushed below and made a closing, on Thursday which may be confirmed today and if so we can see a resumed sell-off on Monday. Have and mind that as it is typical with Gold, after the strong impulse down we may see a break from the Bears and Bulls moving in for a bit to test now the broken support which turned to a supply zone. There, with enough pressure from the sellers, buyers won't be able to push further up and they will fade away, leaving fresh sell orders flowing through the gold market and pushing the price further down. I would wait for today's closing and if it is confirmed clearly, I would enter a short trade on Monday opening to catch the movement as early as possible. 

 At this point, you can restrain yourself from taking further actions, because as I've mentioned I was more to a sell sentiment from my previous analysis and if you are aggressive and risky, you might sell it straight away on Tuesday straight away. If you are sure now, you can sell even today as well, but placing a stop limit at 1187.49 to catch the new movement down is a good idea as well with a stop loss at 1195 and take profit at 1159. 

 With that, I am doing the last forecast and cover up for this week as over the weekends I will be out of town and will resume of course on Tuesday. Enjoy a lovely weekend all and stick tightly to those stop losses. 

EUR/USD losing grounds

published 1 year ago
EUR/USD Daily

 The European currency was underpinned as I have forecasted in my previous analysis as the catalyst came in from the FED meeting and rate decision. Rates were increased on Wednesday from 2% to 2.25% and the overall projection was for further hikes later this year and the hawkish sentiments from the FED gave a strong boost to the dollar across the board.

 The figure wasn't that impressive on the daily chart and the price went back from circa 1.8086 resistance levels and turned South as the market digested the news. With that, the price returned again below 1.17498 and closed below it with a closing price at 1.17369. The daily candle closed as a Bearish engulfing one signalling that the movement has reached its peak and it is time to reverse. 

 As seen from yesterday the price has tanked hard under 1.17093/1.17000 and broke the wedge formation to the Bearish "cave". Stoch and CCI also provided the early signal (check previous) post, so congrats to everyone who sold after when the dust settled after the FED news. The price has a potential of reaching the level of 1.15282, but first, we will need to see a strong breach of 1.16000 and a close below that to assume that there may be further selling to which we can tap in. Reaching and breaching these levels if supported by strong fundamentals and sentiment for the USD a new downtrend will be established here. Going with the trend will be the best option here of course with appropriate stop losses.