the daily chartist

EUR/USD Recap for 15.09.2015

published 6 years ago
EUR/USD Daily

 For the euro things went south too. The price opened at 1.13159, made a high of 1.13282 and then it dropped to 1.12583 for 57 pips and closed the day at 1.12687. The reason? ZEW! German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Came quite bad at 12.1 from forecast of 18.3 and in previous value of 25.0. ZEW Economics Sentiment came also in disappointing numbers at 3.33 from forecast of 42.1 and previous 47.6. After that, even the positive Employment Change and Trade Balance didn't stopped the euro downfall. The cause of the negative Sentiments is hold by the caution that the weakening economic development in Emerging Markets dampens the economic outlook for Germany's export-oriented economy. While economic growth in the second quarter was largely driven by external demand, it is becoming less likely that exports will stimulate growth in the near future. So it seems that the situation in the Emerging Markets will be a major changer in the string export-oriented economy's as Japan. Remember that Kuroda's tactic now is to wait-and-see if actually the offshore situation and in EMs get better before he takes preventive actions and changes in BOJ's policy. Which is a wise move, because a rush action may cause a very negative effect on their goal of helping their exports grow - which again is under the influence of EMs and the US of course. Dollar is overall still dominant and it will stay like this until Thursday. I actually think that if they set steady the rate at 0.25 unchanged the Dollar will explode higher actually, than, if they make a hike and the Dollar will go down hard. Time will tell. Thursday's events will tell. 

GBP/USD recap for 15.09.2015

published 6 years ago
GBP/USD Daily

 Boy, oh boy, we saw some choppy moves from the Pound on Tuesday as the price dropped 123 pips from its top from 1.54564 which is around as I mentioned a strong sell zone around 1.54761. We had ton of inflation data coming out from the Island and all were disappointing. CPI was flat at 0.0%, PPI input went negative from -2.3% forecast to -2.4% actual (as previous revised -1.2%), CORE CPI showed flat figures at 1.0% from forecast of 1.0% (1.2% for the previous period), HPI came in 5.2% from forecast of 6.2% and previous 5.7% and PPI output was also negative at -0.4% from forecast at -0.2% as previous at -0.1%. The price opened at 1.54245 and went up for about 30 pips. At first the negative inflation data actually boosted somewhat the risk appetite in the Sterling then all came crashing-in. In the end, the price closed at 1.53285. This was a strong push down and now the Average Earnings Index will play a role after its results whether or not, the price will continue its fall to 1.52565 or bounce up to 1.54761 again. 

BOJ's Kuroda outlook.Recap for 14.09.2015

published 6 years ago
USD/JPY Daily

 Today Bank Of Japan's leader Kuroda spoke to the media about his view and outlook of Japan's economy and about the eventual policy moves from FED on Thursday. 

 He declined to comment on the US FED decision when asked, which is no surprise, because he can't have an actual negative view on their move, as he stated that any FED hike would suggest confidence in the US economy which is a positive thing for Japan and the global economy. In his words for the FED he also stated on the same topic that emerging economies are less concerned about US FED rate hik triggering capital flight, also he noted that China has plenty of room for policy action for a aftermath of the rate hike and to continue to contain the turmoil in their market. 

 In short: Japanese economy contracted in Q2, but made a significant growth in Q1 and this growth must be taken into account when assessing the economy. There are growth perspectives for Q3.

 Exports and industrial productions are affected by slowdown in the emerging economies and their inflation target of 2% depends on oil prices. CPI is expected to reach (around) 2% in early 2016. QQE policy is to be continued by BOJ until the inflation target of 2% is reached and held stable. Still there were no real hints of their QQE. They only hinted that they will examine upside and downside risks to the economy and prices and will adjust policy as needed. BOJ will continue to closely watch financial market and global economic outlook. 

 Overall as expected, no change in policy from the Bank of Japan. It seems they can't make any new reasonable changes that they can impact the slow industrial production and the weakened exports. They are more likely to wait-and-see if the offshore conditions will improve and naturally this influences Japan's economy in a positive way. 

 

USD/JPY made some big moves. There was an initial support at 119.50 from the drop, then the price climbed back to 119.77. Moved down again to 119.67 and to 119.50 and the pair closed at 120.209. Outlook is that price will move down more to 119.267 and then to 117.849. The Nikkei 225 plunged also and finished the day in negative territroy.

GPB/USD recap for 14.09.2015

published 6 years ago
GBP/USD Daily

 Cable started the day at 1.54270 and made a daily high of 1.54704 reaching the top resistance line and made a 47 pips drop back almost to its opening price closing at 1.54230. Before the close It dropped 45 pips again to 1.53721. Big moves with no clear catalyst. There were no news for the concerning the pair and the UK economy set for the day. BOE MPC member Haldane was on twitter answering questions, but with not even getting closer to talks about the monetary policy. It seems the pair has ended its big jump from 1.52565 and the down-move is ready to continue. This is how I see the pair in the short-term, as the Sterling will continue to move sideways in a range between 1.54761 and 1.51697. Again, this can all change after the aftermath of the FED news on Thursday. 

EUR/USD recap for 14.09.2015

published 6 years ago
EUR/USD Daily

 Euro opened at 1.13311 and made a move to 1.13725 to the resistance line from the weekly chart figure. We  had Industrial Productions coming in at 0.6% from a forecast of 0.3% and previous (revised) -0.3%. Although it is in a positive territory the pair actually made a move down, then turned back. In the end, on the small time frames as in 4H and 1H the pair resumes its downtrend move. This is my current view for the pair, but everything can change as on Thursday the FED will shed more light on their rate policy or they will firmly close the case with a hike that has been expected. As for the hike, there is a 23% probability that they will indeed do it. The hike is targeted for 0.50 base points from 0.25 and vise-versa the probability of staying at 0.25 is 76.86%. There was some speculation that FED may just implement another QE4. For now the dollar will be gaining ground versus all pairs. As for the euro the overall trend is up, but seeing that the price has reached a peak point, we can't disagree that it will go down in short-term and in the long-term to make its slowly but eventual progress to 1.17 and 1.18.