the daily chartist

EUR/USD tests the bottom line of the uptrend

published 2 years ago

 EUR/USD takes advantage of the weaker dollar today as it recently landed for a test on the bottom line of the long-term uptrend on the daily chart. Succeeding there, stopping at 1.4333 gives a green light to push with some long positions, but we are reaching the 50 DEMA and it is going to be crucial for the Bulls to gain more speed to breach and secure the zone. As the price currently is under the 50 DEMA and 200 DEMA, Bears are in control. RSI turns North as well. 

 First scenario: Price keeps pushing to secure its stay in the uptrend and we can go with it.

 Second scenario: Fundamentals and Sentiment go ham and the Buck attracts money again and the price turns south, testing the line and 1.4333 again. Moves under and confirmed for a new long-term downtrend and selling for EUR/USD. 

USD/JPY goes south on weaker dollar

published 2 years ago

 USD/JPY has stopped at 114.553 which is the top line of the long-term downtrend and is reversing back inside of the trend. Recently it played out a correction which seems is coming to an end. Even though the panic from yesterday and the stronger USD, the Buck slipped and we saw lower numbers for the inflation data from today. CPI came at 0.1% from 0.2% forecast and previous. 

 First scenario: USD continues to slide and the price touches the lower line in the wedge (currently it is struggling to press the 50 daily moving average) and breaches. Makes a test and succeeds in convincing the Bears that Bulls are retreating for good. With this, we can start selling towards the 200 DEMA (blue curve) and if we to be sure that JPY will stay king, we need a successful breach there as well. 

 Second scenario: Everyone pumps the USD on rate hike fears and worsening of the world economy and the price makes another attack on 114.553 and successfully breaches. With that, we can enter the movement with longs and catch the bigger reversal. 

Vitalik's pet goes under

published 2 years ago
Ethereum Daily

 ETH's situation ain't different from Bitcoin or the other cryptocurrencies. As with BTC, ETH also made a bearish flag, which took ages and the catalyst from yesterday sparked the fire of selling. Pirce is hard under pressure and we are may see a drop towards 174.38. We are observing a long-term downtrend here as well which was tested to the top side and held firm. RSI goes under level 50 as well, indicating that the selling gains strength. 

 First scenario: Price touches 174.38, breaches and closes under to confirm that the selling will continue and we can start doing our own shorts as well.

 Second scenario: Price bounces off from that level and tests the upper line of the downtrend, breaches and closes with a Bullish confirmation. In this event, longs can be placed steadily with the trend as the price rises. 

Bitcoin finally finding a direction

published 2 years ago
Bitcoin Daily

 And so with yesterday's stock massacre cryptocurrency followed as well, wiping overall 10% or $13 bln market value. The price recently reached the top line of the Bearish wedge and with the breakout today, the Bears took control, playing out a bearish flag configuration that was built for a couple of days, which was frustrating for the market participants. The price again is trying to dip through the marked buy zone and again we ask ourselves is it going to hold? Time will tell. RSI falls under level 50, which indicates that a down move is imminent. 

 We are observing a long-term downtrend for the cryptocurrency and currently, we are crawling around the top line of the trend as well. 

First scenario: Price reverses from the buy zone, breaches and tests the line successfully, then tests the 50 (red) and 200 (blue) moving averages successfully and a new uptrend starts where we can start placing buy positions and build them gradually lifting the stop loss. 

Second scenario: Price breaches the buy zone, tests and closes under. This is in regards to the bottom line of the huge triangle, so if this event occurs we will see the start of a new sell-off and a proper continuation of the downtrend. Here we can think of starting to arrange some shorts and go with the trend.

Worsening in fundamentals and sentiment for now keeps the prices of crypto under pressure. 

Upcoming events and news for next week

published 2 years ago

 I am bringing to you a snapshot for what is to come for next week's economics calendar so that you can prepare your forecasts, trading ideas and strategies and to be aware of what for each day. I will be doing this every Sunday, but today is an exclusion, as tomorrow I will be away from town for a full relaxation session with the girlfriend and my dog and I won't be even looking at charts. They are quite pointy you know, gonna take out your eyes if you stare them for too much. I will resume the normal postings for the Economics calendar next Sunday on the 21st. So to begin with the wrap-up.

 On Monday we have the German Industrial Production index for the German economy on a monthly basis here. Previous value was at -1.1% and the expectations are for a comeback at 0.4%. We also have for the Euro overall the Sentix Investors Confidence indicator which had a previous value of 12 points and is met against the forecast to fall a bit towards 11.4 points. And that is all for Monday, it is going to be a quiet day, not much movement, just a typical Monday where the markets are adjusting for renewed action for the new weekdays.

 Tuesday we are getting a bit more data pumped into the calendar as we begin with some data for the British Economy as we have the BRC Retail Sales Monitor index on a yearly basis. Last time this was at 0.2% without any clear forecast. Following up as Asia session begins on Tuesday we are starting with Japan's Current Account levels. We are expecting a rise towards 1.152T (trillion) against the previous value of 1.48T. Economy Watchers Sentiment follows shortly after. This indicator settled the last time at 48.7 and the forecast is to go lower at 47.3. Jumping after to the Euro Area we have German Trade Balance with a forecast of 15.9B (billion)  as previously the value was 15.8B. So we are taking here for a small, but steady rise in the Trade Balance condition for Germany. Following is the FPC Statement for the Pound and then as we are approaching the US sessions we have the NFIB Small Business Index where the forecast shows a slight rise at 108.9 from 108.8 from the previous period. Landing to the Canadian side we have after that the Housing Starts where the forecast shows a moderate rise in the activity of new house construction coming at 203K (thousand) from 201K previously. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is going to come up at some point during the day hinting a small reduction there from 55.7 towards at least 54.6. We have two speakers following the end of the fundamentals data for the day from MPC Member Broadbent Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks. British and Canadian respectively. 

 MIddle of the week brings us more goodies from the Economics calendar with Wednesday starting with the Japanese economy and the Core Machinery Orders on a monthly basis. 11% previously against a forecast -3.6% is quite the big drop there. FOMC Member Williams Speaks after that and as we head to the morning EU session we begin with French Industrial Production on monthly hinting for a decline from 0.7% towards 0.5%. We have the same indicator following, but for the Italian economy, showing a forecast for a rise from -1.8% towards 0.9%. We are stacked with GBP data on Wednesday as we have the GDP on monthly with a forecast of 0.1%, previously 03.%. Manufacturing Production ticking up as well, showing a forecast from -0.2% to arise at 0.1%. Construction Output has a forecast of -0.4% against the previous value at 0.5%. Goods Trade Balance is after that with a forecast of -10.9B versus the previous value of -10B. Index of Services on a 3-month basis is forecasted to stay flat at 0.6%. Industrial Production is to remain flat as well at 0.1% as previously. We end the GBP combo with MPC Member Haldane speaking. For the US session we have on standby the USD PPI on monthly and the Core PPI on monthly as well, both with a forecast to come up at 0.2% versus -0.1% for the previous period. Final Wholesale Inventories on a monthly is to wrap up the US session, with the view to stay flat at 0.8% as the previous period. 

 On Thursday we have FOMC Member Bostic speaking follow by the GBP RICS House Price Balance, view to stay flat at 2% as the previous value. For Japan we have a couple of things to check - Bank Lending value on a yearly basis which is to stay lower at 2.1% versus 2.2%, PPI yearly with a forecast of 2.9% versus the previous period of 3%. As we as setting for the EU session we are going to visit the French Final CPI on a monthly basis which is forecasted to stay flat at -0.2%. We are expecting after that the BOE Credit Conditions Survey and MPC Member Vlienghe speaking. ECB Monetary Policy Meetings Accounts follows and before the US market opens we have the CAD NHPI on a monthly basis rising a bit from 01.% towards 0.2%. USD CPI on monthly to remain flat at 0.2%, CORE CPI on monthly leads for a small rise from 0.1% towards 0.2% and the Unemployment Claims follow as well with previously being at 207K. Lastly, we have Natural Gas Storage and Crude Oil Inventories.

 On the last day of the week - Friday we have not that many things for the calendar as early Asia session will reveal if M2 Money Stock yearly for the Japanese economy will remain flat at 2.9%, followed by the Tertiary Industry Activity index on a monthly basis, leading towards a rise from 0.1% to 0.3%. For the Euro area we have German Final CPI m/m (monthly basis) showing to have no change from 0.4% and EU Industrial Production m/m, leading to a good rise from negative 0.8% towards 0.4%. Import Prices for the USD Import Prices m/m follows with a forecast of 0.3% versus -0.6% from the previous period and we have Perlim UoM Consumer Sentiment with a forecast of 100.9 versus 100.1 and Perlim UoM Inflation Expectations. On Friday we have as well the IMF Meeting, which is going to throughout the whole day. Ending the day we have FOMC Member Bostic speaking and the Federal Budget Balance which will be released sometime during the day.

 That's all for this week in macroeconomics and fundamental, so have them in mind in your strategies as well and of course pay attention to any news in your feeds for rapid changes in the market conditions. Wish you all good weekends and get charged up for another week with the markets.