the daily chartist

BOJ's Kuroda outlook.Recap for 14.09.2015

published 5 years ago

 Today Bank Of Japan's leader Kuroda spoke to the media about his view and outlook of Japan's economy and about the eventual policy moves from FED on Thursday. 

 He declined to comment on the US FED decision when asked, which is no surprise, because he can't have an actual negative view on their move, as he stated that any FED hike would suggest confidence in the US economy which is a positive thing for Japan and the global economy. In his words for the FED he also stated on the same topic that emerging economies are less concerned about US FED rate hik triggering capital flight, also he noted that China has plenty of room for policy action for a aftermath of the rate hike and to continue to contain the turmoil in their market. 

 In short: Japanese economy contracted in Q2, but made a significant growth in Q1 and this growth must be taken into account when assessing the economy. There are growth perspectives for Q3.

 Exports and industrial productions are affected by slowdown in the emerging economies and their inflation target of 2% depends on oil prices. CPI is expected to reach (around) 2% in early 2016. QQE policy is to be continued by BOJ until the inflation target of 2% is reached and held stable. Still there were no real hints of their QQE. They only hinted that they will examine upside and downside risks to the economy and prices and will adjust policy as needed. BOJ will continue to closely watch financial market and global economic outlook. 

 Overall as expected, no change in policy from the Bank of Japan. It seems they can't make any new reasonable changes that they can impact the slow industrial production and the weakened exports. They are more likely to wait-and-see if the offshore conditions will improve and naturally this influences Japan's economy in a positive way. 


USD/JPY made some big moves. There was an initial support at 119.50 from the drop, then the price climbed back to 119.77. Moved down again to 119.67 and to 119.50 and the pair closed at 120.209. Outlook is that price will move down more to 119.267 and then to 117.849. The Nikkei 225 plunged also and finished the day in negative territroy.

GPB/USD recap for 14.09.2015

published 5 years ago

 Cable started the day at 1.54270 and made a daily high of 1.54704 reaching the top resistance line and made a 47 pips drop back almost to its opening price closing at 1.54230. Before the close It dropped 45 pips again to 1.53721. Big moves with no clear catalyst. There were no news for the concerning the pair and the UK economy set for the day. BOE MPC member Haldane was on twitter answering questions, but with not even getting closer to talks about the monetary policy. It seems the pair has ended its big jump from 1.52565 and the down-move is ready to continue. This is how I see the pair in the short-term, as the Sterling will continue to move sideways in a range between 1.54761 and 1.51697. Again, this can all change after the aftermath of the FED news on Thursday. 

EUR/USD recap for 14.09.2015

published 5 years ago

 Euro opened at 1.13311 and made a move to 1.13725 to the resistance line from the weekly chart figure. We  had Industrial Productions coming in at 0.6% from a forecast of 0.3% and previous (revised) -0.3%. Although it is in a positive territory the pair actually made a move down, then turned back. In the end, on the small time frames as in 4H and 1H the pair resumes its downtrend move. This is my current view for the pair, but everything can change as on Thursday the FED will shed more light on their rate policy or they will firmly close the case with a hike that has been expected. As for the hike, there is a 23% probability that they will indeed do it. The hike is targeted for 0.50 base points from 0.25 and vise-versa the probability of staying at 0.25 is 76.86%. There was some speculation that FED may just implement another QE4. For now the dollar will be gaining ground versus all pairs. As for the euro the overall trend is up, but seeing that the price has reached a peak point, we can't disagree that it will go down in short-term and in the long-term to make its slowly but eventual progress to 1.17 and 1.18.

DAX recap for 14.09.2015

published 5 years ago
DAX daily

DAX Index recap for 14.09.2015

DAX today opened at 10186.5 and moved to a day-high at 10227.3, just to turn a bit negative, but to close the day with a +0.4% as the only European Index to end the day in positive territory. The Index may turn south again to test the levels around 9969.5 which is a buy zone and if it brakes trough, the bears may find momentum and go for the zone around 9782.2. On the daily chart the Index is consolidating in a flag type figure and it will not be a surprise if actually the consolidation remains unchanged until Thursday this week when the FED will announce if they will implement a rate hike. As the week progresses this is to be expected from markets around the world and we will see more consolidation as market participants set in for the news.

FTSE ended -0.3%

CAC  -0.3%

IBEX -1.6%

Weekly Market Recap (7.09-13.09.2015)

published 5 years ago


Hello and welcome to my Blog.


This is my first article.


Weekly market recap for the period 7.09 - 11.09.2015.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD related

The week started with economic data from Germany EU Zone and Switzerland. 


 07.09.2015. Data was out for the German Industrial Production index on monthly basis, showing a drop to 0.7% from the estimated 1.2% for the month of September. The previous value (as revised) was at -0.9%. Shortly the GIP index shows change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. It is a leading indicator of economic health as for production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings.

 On the Swiss side, they started the week with data bout their Foreign Currency Reserves witch came at 540 B (billion) from 531 B as previous value. As the data shows the reserves are up in August. This indicator provides insight into the SNB's (Swiss National Bank) currency market operations, such as how actively they are defending the franc's exchange rate against the euro.

 Sentix Investor Confidence was last for the economic data scheduled for 7.09.2015. Expectations collapsed as the data came up at 13.6 points, the forecast was 16.2 and for August the index was at 18.4 points. It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity.  US and Canada had their Bank Holidays.

 08.09.2015 was a busy day for Europe starting with Retail Sales BRC on year basis (British Retail Consortium) for the UK, which measures change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level. It came at -1.0%, with previous for August 2015 at 1.2%. Switzerland again came up with its Unemployment Rate staying steady and unchanged at 3.3.% as forecast and previous at 3.3.%. German Trade Balance came up positive at 22.8 B as 21.8 B was a forecast and was higher than the revsied 22.1 B. French Gov Budget Balance was changed from the previous -58.5 B value to -79.8 B, also the French had their Trade Balance up which was at -3.3 B as -3.2 B forecast, the previous value was revised to -2.8 B. Revised GDP on quarterly basis (q/q) came up positive to  0.4% from previous 0.3% which was the forecast as swell. We also had a 30-year Bond Auction for the UK, and for the US we had NFIB Small Business Index which came up a bit low at 95.9 from 95.4, forecast was 96.0 points, Labor Market Conditions Index (monthly) m/m which came up positive at 2.1 from 1.8 points (revised from August) and Consumer Credit m/m which was positive from the forecast value (18.4 B), climbing to 19.1 B, but revised August value was 27.0 B.

 09.09.2015 for the EU Zone started with Manufacturing Production m/m which came up negative at -0.8% from 0.2%, a negative Trade Balance to -11.1 B from -8.5 B and Industrial Production m/m was negative also coming at -0.4% from the forecast at 0.1%. The final major events were from the US with their JOLTS Job Opening coming at 5.75 M from 5.30 as forecast  and 5.32 M as previous. 

 10.09.2015. The French had their major data up first with French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q coming unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% forecast and previous value. French Industrial Production m/m came up negative to -0.8% from a forecast at 0.3% and previous 0.0% value. The Brits had their Halifax HPI m/m positive at 2.7% from forecast 0.5% and revised previous from August value from -0.4%. GBP had its influence also from statement for the Official Bank Rate which was hold unchanged and the rate is staying at 0.50%. US had its Unemployment Claims coming positive at 275 k from forecast 279 k and revised August value from 281 k.

 11.09.2015. German Final CPI m/m came unchanged staying at 0.0%, Italian Industrial Production m/m was positive at 1.1% from forecast at 0.9% and previous for August -1.0%. US PPI m/m was positive at 0.0% from forecast -0.1% and from previous, revised, 0.2% value, Core PPI too came in positive at 0.3% from forecast at 0.1% and previous value at 0.3%. Prelim Consumer Sentiment wrapped up the day coming negative to 85.7 points from forecast 91.4 and previous, revised, 91.9 points. 




 The euro opened the week candle on 1.11589 and for the full week bulls held to the euro with longs and pumped up the price to 1.13490, closing at 1.13414. Still the euro on weekly chart is in a triangle formation and currently price has touched the top resistance line and we may see a move down to 1.10296 before the push up to 1.17128 and further up to 1.124634, but not before correcting down to 1.13414. 



 Sterling finished the week at 1.54254, dropping from the week high at 1.54757. The weekly move started actually positive without initial drop around the 1.51672 (buy zone) level. At this rate if dollar continues to loose positions against the majors and UK shows positive news, we may see a new test at 1.57422, returning to 1.5476, but with the uncertainty around the FED rate hikes we may actually see a halt at that level and watch the Pound moving lower to 1.51697, a move below 1.51 could signal for a move low to as around 1.49670 and maybe finding a support at 1.49150.