the daily chartist

GBP/USD recap for 18.09.2015

published 4 years ago
GBP/USD Daily

 The day for the Pound also started in the green as the price opened at 1.55855 made a 70 pips up to the high of 1.56586 and dropped 144 pips to the low of 1.55130 just to close in at 1.55237. Dollar glut is one catalyst for this event, but also we had BOE's Haldane speaking. His comments were few, but I think enough to shift the pair's move south. Haldane stated:

  • There is still spare capacity in the UK economy (dove)
  • UK is in first and second gear and is growing at trend (dove)
  • UK economy is doing fine and has strength (a softer tone)

 All seems good right? Wrong. Actually I think Haldane didn't made any actual and motivating points for the pound to strengthen that day as all others failed against the dollar. No comments on inflation or FOMC aftermath, but lets not forget that inflation in the UK is moving a lot better than the US, and it could change their view on their own rate hike. They may understand that they do not need to wait for the FED to act, as US inflation is slacking because offshore reasons. UK is fine. Exports are going well, wages are going up, people spend, construction is advancing. As noted, after the inaction of the FED, other Central Banks may decide to act on their own. Starting with the UK and then EU. US will lag behind, and we won't see a rate hike from the US anytime soon. 

 If the pressure on the gbp continues I see it falling again to 1.54761 and then to 1.54245 if the above level is broken.

EUR/USD recap for 18.09.2015

published 4 years ago
EUR/USD Daily

 All started well with a high opening at 1.14288 and the euro made a 30 pip move up towards a high at 1.14598. Afterwards - 155 pips move down to the lowest point for the day at 1.12688 and a close at 1.12813. The euro was cruising in a upswing in the US session, but everything went downfall as we progressed in-to the US session and the EU close as stops were triggered and the bears found a way to brake trough. Seems that the aftermath of the FED has been priced-in, seems that US holding the rates lays out the way for some risk trades in stocks and carry trades. Bond market is on its way stabilizing and the Treasury Bund spread should normalize, thus leading to an renewed and accelerated selling in the euro to fund the carry trades as they begin. The candle from yesterday is big bearish engulfing candle, which may indicate the upcoming shift for the euro heading down. Still the daily uptrend line is holding and it will be tested at 1.12379 and if broken - the price my search for a support at 1.11436, 1.10767 and so until the next FOMC meeting. 

EUR/USD recap for 17.09.2015

published 4 years ago
EUR/USD Daily

 EUR/USD popped hard 1.13, then 1.14 and currently its on its way to 1.15161 where I think the price will meet a hard resistance, leading to a correction to 1.14355 levels. Greek elections are knocking on the door, but for now the euro doesn't seem to the troubled. Latest poll has New Democracy in the lead ahead of Sunday's election. Leads with 1.4% over Syriza. The two parties are virtually neck to neck. A New Democracy victory will cast doubt over the Greek bailout plans again and should give the euro another wobble.

GBP/USD recap for 17.09.2015

published 4 years ago
GBP/USD Daily

 As the dollar enters weakness the Pound certainly enters strong with bulls advancing hard and pushing the price to 1.56278. Pound has made a big recovery from the support at 1.54245 zone with 274 pips until now. The probability of reaching 1.56866 is getting bigger with the recent events of inaction to strengthen the dollar.

USDX Dollar Index recap for 17.09.2015

published 4 years ago
USDX Daily

 Given the early indication for inaction form the FED, the Dollar Index quickly broke trough 95.30 and accelerated its drop to 94.34. For several weeks now the Dollar will be under major pressure and will be weakening further. 93.30 is a possible first "line of defense" for the Index, going down further will accelerate the chances for a drop to 92.47 and 92.11.