the daily chartist

Double trouble for Cable

published 2 years ago

Sterling has also been placed under pressure as uncertainty grows surrounding the Brexit deal if it happens at all by the end of this year. We've seen some resilience from the Pound, showing some gains against weakening dollar across the board as we had a test on the upper trend line of the descending channel, test on the 200 daily moving average and all failed. Price quickly returned to inside the bearish wedge to form a double top as well. We had a breach on the wedge line a test on the 23.6 Fibo and the price has returned inside. Demarker has reversed forming a sell signal. Price is under the 1.3000 price level as well. 

With all that, we can take sell positions with an appropriate stop loss level at 1.31000. There is a potential for the price to go down towards the 1.26613 price level for a take profit. 

Dow Jones moving away from a complete disaster

published 2 years ago
DJIA Daily

Recent weeks have been a tough one for global equities and indexes all across the globe as we have seen some heavy selling, something we haven't witnessed since February and March of this year. As rapid as it can get, selling can spread swiftly across the major exchanges and quickly make everyone's red lamp to light and signal for an incoming catastrophe. 

Yesterday DJIA dipped under the 200 daily moving average and then buyers came in to save the day. The situation was averted, but we have three days left of this week so anything can happen. There are buying opportunities on the dips inside the green support zone, where the price finds support around the 200 daily and a couple of near-term trend lines. The index itself is still inside the long-term uptrend. 

Alternatively: selling can begin once we have full closure under the 200 daily moving average, under the green zone, breach of 23.6 with closing under it and backtest of the level, which needs to fail. Currently, the battle still rages on for the future of the index and not only the US ones. We are talking globally here. Nothing more than fear has driven the markets to jump into a selling cycle as we have doubts about the future expansion of the global economy as it is showing early signs of slowing and the pressure from the FED continuing forward with their current monetary policy of increasing rates. As we are in the middle of the earnings season as well the effect from the better than expected results from reports are not enough to settle an accommodative boost to equities and indexes for new all-time highs. This itself is indicative enough of the sentiment of the market participants and casts a shadow for the short-term performance of the major indexes. 

What's next for the upcoming week on the calendar

published 2 years ago

 We've ended the long week to enjoy some peace and relaxation over the weekends as it was quite filled with action and a small dose of fear for sure. Have you noticed that every correction that happens stars to gain more and more attention? It's like the needle closes with every inch near the balloon to pop it. Small negative catalysts like first signs of worsening economic sentiment over the world and... the fear... of a forthcoming monetary policy tend to plunge the markets with 5 to 6% and everyone is near the fat finger to dump everything. The media is to blame about that for sure and it adds a bit of spice to the events. So when the catalyst fades out everyone's just back to buying, back to normal, like nothing happened and we have DJIA at a new all-time high in a month. Nothing yet that important has happened for everyone to panic and that we can talk about new dark times. Keep it chill.

 So we are heading into a new week that's gonna be long for sure as entering mid-October the month has been more than filled with action and totally not boring. For the week between 15.10 and 19.10 we have the following news and events that we need to take into account for our forecasting and trading:

 Monday, Asian session starting with the rising sun and the economy of Japan. Revised Industrial production m/m shows us that the expectations are that the current conditions will remain the same, flat at 0.7%. On the US-premarket session, we have some Inflation data for the US. Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4%/0.3%, Retail Sales m/m 0.7%/0.1% and Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.4/19. Business Inventories are the last 0.5%/0.6%. For Canada e have BOC Business Outlook Survey.

 Tuesday brings us more stuff to watch. Sometime during the day, we will see the US Treasury Currency. Starting early, before the EU session we have German Import Prices m/m at 0.1%/-0.2%. Pound follows with Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.6%/2.6%, Unemployment Rate 4%/4%. Moving further into the EU session we have Trade Balance 15B/12.8B. ZEW Economics Sentiment -9.2/-7.2. German ZEW Economics Sentiment -12.3/-10.6. US pre-market we have MPC Member Cunliffe speaking and for the US we have Industrial Production m/ 0.2%/0.4%. JOLTS Job Openings 6.90M/6.94M and NAHB Housing Market Index 68/67. Ending the day we have FOMC Member Daly speaking. 

 Mid-week on Wednesday we have heavy GBP inflation data, starting with CPI y/y 2.6%/2.7%, PPI Input m/m 0.9%/0.5%, Core CPI y/y 2%/2.1%. For the EU we have Fina CPI y/y 2.1%/2.1% and Final Core CPI y/y 0.9%/0.9%. From Canada, we have Manufacturing Sales m/m with no forecast for now, but previously it was 0.9%. Following that we have US Building Permits 1.28M/1.25M and Housing Starts 1.21M/1.28M. Crude Oil Inventories follows with the previous value which was a cushion of 6M barrels. Ending the day we have e chain of speakers pilled up, starting with FOMC Member Brainard speaking, German Buba President Weidmann speaking, MPC Member Broadbent speaking and FOMC Meeting minutes. 

 Thursday we are starting with Japan's Trade Balance -0.34T/-0.19T and BOJ Gov Kuroda speaking. German WPI m/m comes after 0.4%/0.3% and GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3%/0.3%. During the whole day, we are having the EU Economic Summit. CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change follows with no forecast, but previously it was 13.6K. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index follows 21/22.9 and Unemployment Claims 210K/214K previously. 

 Lastly, but not lacking significance we have Friday. BOJ Kuroda speaking again in early Asia trading, heading into the EU trading we have EU Current Account 21.4B/21.3B. US pre-market we have a series of Canadian inflation data, starting with CPI m/m which previously was -0.1%, Core Retails Sales m/m 0.9%, Common CPI y/y 2%, Median CPI 2.1%, Retail Sales m/m 0.3%, Trimmed CPI y/y 2.2% and Core CPI m/m 0.1%. All previous values, they still do not have any forecasted values. Existing Home Sales for the US comes after at a forecast of 5.31M, previously 5.34M. Ending the day and the week we have BOE Carney speaking and FOMC Member Bostic on the microphones also. 

My personal forecasting method

published 2 years ago

 In this article, I am going to show you whats my forecasting method, applied to all of the instruments in my watchlist. Before that, I am going to share with you what I have in my watchlist, at what time frame are my charts and what charting platform I am using. Of course don't take that as a permanent hint on how you can arrange your trading scheme, charting tools and forecasting method. This is my personal one as I am orientated to trend long-term trading and I look at the big picture. This is my trading style. You can take it as an orientating hint for your basic foundation on what and how you want to trade, but in the end, everything depends on you, your attitude and personal view which will shape out your own trading style and method, which you share as well. So first things first - the charting platform. 

 I've been using MetaTrader since day 1 of my trading adventures. I found it "the best" since then, but recently the technology was developed very well in regards to trading and charting platform and we are seeing more and more so-called web trading platforms. As much as I am fond to the MetaTrader I think it is lacking behind from the competitors in its charting tools and indicators list. For sure it is best in speed and reliability, but this strongly depends on the infrastructure of the Broker you are trading with. The platform is still broadly used from official institutions as well and the platform is usable since 1999. Also supports the MQL on basis of C language for creating trading bots. At the beginning of my blog, I have posted charts from MetaTrader 4 but from some time now I have transitioned to TradingView. The free basic profile supports what you would need in your common forecasting, but if you would like to go further you will need to subscribe to the different plans they offer. The charting platform gives an enormous list of indicator, charting tools, economic indicators, forecasting tools and all sorts of goodies to spam your chart with. Also, you can download the app on your Android or iPhone and all of your chartings is synced directly between the devices so you don't lose track of your forecasting or you want to brag about your amazing Head and Showders pattern you've discovered in EUR/USD to your friends. 

 My watchlist. It has been created for THE MOST used and watched instruments from me (that's why its a watchlist). The watchlist itself is in TradingView where you can add and remove any instrument you would like. Things that I am watching: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, XAUUSD, SILVER, XCUUSD, PALLADIUM, PLATINUM, USOIL, UKOIL, NATGASUSD, DAX, SPX, DJI, HSI, NFLX, TWTR, FB, TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, DXY, VIX, USDTRY, USDMXN, USDARS, USDBRL, USDRUB, EURBGN.

 What my forecast consists of. I am a long-term investor-style orientated trader and I look at the daily chart to spot the long-term trend and look out for a possible trend reversal. Also, I am looking at price action, patterns, Fibo levels, DeMarker (8), EMA50 and EMA200. In the example with AUD/USD on the daily chart, you can see my "drawings" for the Aussie. I am looking for any possible in-trend trading as well from any flags or wedges. Moving average crossovers as well.  Fundamentals are something I watch closely as well. I am taking in regards any news and economic data. I am filtering my economics calendar (you can use the TradingView or the ForexFactory) to only the events in yellow or red which has a significant impact on the markets. I am watching only fundamentals from Canada, EU zone overall and separately - Germany and the UK. I don't check anything South from Germany. Japan and the US economies. 

 This is the charting thingy I do. Brought down to something clean, easy to read and productive. If you found this useful, of course, please share it to whatever social media you are using and you can send me an email to what is your trading or charting method and if you have further questions ask as well. 

 Remember... Eveything is subjective in trading. Everything. 

Brexit ain't scaring Cable

published 2 years ago

 Sterling has proven its resilience these days even though we had negative news surrounding Brexit and a stronger Dollar. The pair is placed in a long-term downtrend, but in the past months, we have seen steady rises in the price of the Pound, climbing towards the top line of the trend. Though not successful and followed by a correction, the price is trying to make a small push towards 1.33011. Bulls already managed to push above and close above the 50 DEMA and are aiming at the 200 DEMA.

 First scenario: We are going to see a successful push above 1.33011 and continue the climb towards the top trend line, breaching it will give us the opportunity to build up longs with a new uptrend. 

 Second scenario: Price fails everywhere along the road to the top and returns inside the downtrend momentum. A new selling may be done when the price dips under 1.3000 and closes under it.