the daily chartist

What's next for the upcoming week on the calendar

published 11 months ago

 We've ended the long week to enjoy some peace and relaxation over the weekends as it was quite filled with action and a small dose of fear for sure. Have you noticed that every correction that happens stars to gain more and more attention? It's like the needle closes with every inch near the balloon to pop it. Small negative catalysts like first signs of worsening economic sentiment over the world and... the fear... of a forthcoming monetary policy tend to plunge the markets with 5 to 6% and everyone is near the fat finger to dump everything. The media is to blame about that for sure and it adds a bit of spice to the events. So when the catalyst fades out everyone's just back to buying, back to normal, like nothing happened and we have DJIA at a new all-time high in a month. Nothing yet that important has happened for everyone to panic and that we can talk about new dark times. Keep it chill.

 So we are heading into a new week that's gonna be long for sure as entering mid-October the month has been more than filled with action and totally not boring. For the week between 15.10 and 19.10 we have the following news and events that we need to take into account for our forecasting and trading:

 Monday, Asian session starting with the rising sun and the economy of Japan. Revised Industrial production m/m shows us that the expectations are that the current conditions will remain the same, flat at 0.7%. On the US-premarket session, we have some Inflation data for the US. Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4%/0.3%, Retail Sales m/m 0.7%/0.1% and Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.4/19. Business Inventories are the last 0.5%/0.6%. For Canada e have BOC Business Outlook Survey.

 Tuesday brings us more stuff to watch. Sometime during the day, we will see the US Treasury Currency. Starting early, before the EU session we have German Import Prices m/m at 0.1%/-0.2%. Pound follows with Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.6%/2.6%, Unemployment Rate 4%/4%. Moving further into the EU session we have Trade Balance 15B/12.8B. ZEW Economics Sentiment -9.2/-7.2. German ZEW Economics Sentiment -12.3/-10.6. US pre-market we have MPC Member Cunliffe speaking and for the US we have Industrial Production m/ 0.2%/0.4%. JOLTS Job Openings 6.90M/6.94M and NAHB Housing Market Index 68/67. Ending the day we have FOMC Member Daly speaking. 

 Mid-week on Wednesday we have heavy GBP inflation data, starting with CPI y/y 2.6%/2.7%, PPI Input m/m 0.9%/0.5%, Core CPI y/y 2%/2.1%. For the EU we have Fina CPI y/y 2.1%/2.1% and Final Core CPI y/y 0.9%/0.9%. From Canada, we have Manufacturing Sales m/m with no forecast for now, but previously it was 0.9%. Following that we have US Building Permits 1.28M/1.25M and Housing Starts 1.21M/1.28M. Crude Oil Inventories follows with the previous value which was a cushion of 6M barrels. Ending the day we have e chain of speakers pilled up, starting with FOMC Member Brainard speaking, German Buba President Weidmann speaking, MPC Member Broadbent speaking and FOMC Meeting minutes. 

 Thursday we are starting with Japan's Trade Balance -0.34T/-0.19T and BOJ Gov Kuroda speaking. German WPI m/m comes after 0.4%/0.3% and GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3%/0.3%. During the whole day, we are having the EU Economic Summit. CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change follows with no forecast, but previously it was 13.6K. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index follows 21/22.9 and Unemployment Claims 210K/214K previously. 

 Lastly, but not lacking significance we have Friday. BOJ Kuroda speaking again in early Asia trading, heading into the EU trading we have EU Current Account 21.4B/21.3B. US pre-market we have a series of Canadian inflation data, starting with CPI m/m which previously was -0.1%, Core Retails Sales m/m 0.9%, Common CPI y/y 2%, Median CPI 2.1%, Retail Sales m/m 0.3%, Trimmed CPI y/y 2.2% and Core CPI m/m 0.1%. All previous values, they still do not have any forecasted values. Existing Home Sales for the US comes after at a forecast of 5.31M, previously 5.34M. Ending the day and the week we have BOE Carney speaking and FOMC Member Bostic on the microphones also. 

My personal forecasting method

published 11 months ago
AUD/USD Daily

 In this article, I am going to show you whats my forecasting method, applied to all of the instruments in my watchlist. Before that, I am going to share with you what I have in my watchlist, at what time frame are my charts and what charting platform I am using. Of course don't take that as a permanent hint on how you can arrange your trading scheme, charting tools and forecasting method. This is my personal one as I am orientated to trend long-term trading and I look at the big picture. This is my trading style. You can take it as an orientating hint for your basic foundation on what and how you want to trade, but in the end, everything depends on you, your attitude and personal view which will shape out your own trading style and method, which you share as well. So first things first - the charting platform. 

 I've been using MetaTrader since day 1 of my trading adventures. I found it "the best" since then, but recently the technology was developed very well in regards to trading and charting platform and we are seeing more and more so-called web trading platforms. As much as I am fond to the MetaTrader I think it is lacking behind from the competitors in its charting tools and indicators list. For sure it is best in speed and reliability, but this strongly depends on the infrastructure of the Broker you are trading with. The platform is still broadly used from official institutions as well and the platform is usable since 1999. Also supports the MQL on basis of C language for creating trading bots. At the beginning of my blog, I have posted charts from MetaTrader 4 but from some time now I have transitioned to TradingView. The free basic profile supports what you would need in your common forecasting, but if you would like to go further you will need to subscribe to the different plans they offer. The charting platform gives an enormous list of indicator, charting tools, economic indicators, forecasting tools and all sorts of goodies to spam your chart with. Also, you can download the app on your Android or iPhone and all of your chartings is synced directly between the devices so you don't lose track of your forecasting or you want to brag about your amazing Head and Showders pattern you've discovered in EUR/USD to your friends. 

 My watchlist. It has been created for THE MOST used and watched instruments from me (that's why its a watchlist). The watchlist itself is in TradingView where you can add and remove any instrument you would like. Things that I am watching: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, XAUUSD, SILVER, XCUUSD, PALLADIUM, PLATINUM, USOIL, UKOIL, NATGASUSD, DAX, SPX, DJI, HSI, NFLX, TWTR, FB, TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, DXY, VIX, USDTRY, USDMXN, USDARS, USDBRL, USDRUB, EURBGN.

 What my forecast consists of. I am a long-term investor-style orientated trader and I look at the daily chart to spot the long-term trend and look out for a possible trend reversal. Also, I am looking at price action, patterns, Fibo levels, DeMarker (8), EMA50 and EMA200. In the example with AUD/USD on the daily chart, you can see my "drawings" for the Aussie. I am looking for any possible in-trend trading as well from any flags or wedges. Moving average crossovers as well.  Fundamentals are something I watch closely as well. I am taking in regards any news and economic data. I am filtering my economics calendar (you can use the TradingView or the ForexFactory) to only the events in yellow or red which has a significant impact on the markets. I am watching only fundamentals from Canada, EU zone overall and separately - Germany and the UK. I don't check anything South from Germany. Japan and the US economies. 

 This is the charting thingy I do. Brought down to something clean, easy to read and productive. If you found this useful, of course, please share it to whatever social media you are using and you can send me an email to what is your trading or charting method and if you have further questions ask as well. 

 Remember... Eveything is subjective in trading. Everything. 

Brexit ain't scaring Cable

published 11 months ago
GBP/USD Daily

 Sterling has proven its resilience these days even though we had negative news surrounding Brexit and a stronger Dollar. The pair is placed in a long-term downtrend, but in the past months, we have seen steady rises in the price of the Pound, climbing towards the top line of the trend. Though not successful and followed by a correction, the price is trying to make a small push towards 1.33011. Bulls already managed to push above and close above the 50 DEMA and are aiming at the 200 DEMA.

 First scenario: We are going to see a successful push above 1.33011 and continue the climb towards the top trend line, breaching it will give us the opportunity to build up longs with a new uptrend. 

 Second scenario: Price fails everywhere along the road to the top and returns inside the downtrend momentum. A new selling may be done when the price dips under 1.3000 and closes under it. 

EUR/USD tests the bottom line of the uptrend

published 11 months ago
EUR/USD Daily

 EUR/USD takes advantage of the weaker dollar today as it recently landed for a test on the bottom line of the long-term uptrend on the daily chart. Succeeding there, stopping at 1.4333 gives a green light to push with some long positions, but we are reaching the 50 DEMA and it is going to be crucial for the Bulls to gain more speed to breach and secure the zone. As the price currently is under the 50 DEMA and 200 DEMA, Bears are in control. RSI turns North as well. 

 First scenario: Price keeps pushing to secure its stay in the uptrend and we can go with it.

 Second scenario: Fundamentals and Sentiment go ham and the Buck attracts money again and the price turns south, testing the line and 1.4333 again. Moves under and confirmed for a new long-term downtrend and selling for EUR/USD. 

USD/JPY goes south on weaker dollar

published 11 months ago
USD/JPY Daily

 USD/JPY has stopped at 114.553 which is the top line of the long-term downtrend and is reversing back inside of the trend. Recently it played out a correction which seems is coming to an end. Even though the panic from yesterday and the stronger USD, the Buck slipped and we saw lower numbers for the inflation data from today. CPI came at 0.1% from 0.2% forecast and previous. 

 First scenario: USD continues to slide and the price touches the lower line in the wedge (currently it is struggling to press the 50 daily moving average) and breaches. Makes a test and succeeds in convincing the Bears that Bulls are retreating for good. With this, we can start selling towards the 200 DEMA (blue curve) and if we to be sure that JPY will stay king, we need a successful breach there as well. 

 Second scenario: Everyone pumps the USD on rate hike fears and worsening of the world economy and the price makes another attack on 114.553 and successfully breaches. With that, we can enter the movement with longs and catch the bigger reversal.